Concepts 14: Baccarat 1st Card Advantage

All right folks. First off, please understand that having a 1st-card advantage means that the player has somehow found out what the first card of the as-yet undealed coup is. This is at worst cheating or at best, if the dealer or procedures are weak, advantage play. 1st-card advantage is essentially a study of all the possible card permutations that start with Ace through to King that result in a Player, Banker or Tie result from the remaining cards in the shoe. The 2 tables below show that knowing that the 1st card is a 1-5 or 10-K, would give a small advantage on the Banker wager. Knowledge of the 1st card being 6-9 would give an increasing advantage on the Player wager, with knowing a 1st card as being 9 giving a 21% advantage on the Player wager. Below is a table that shows the probabilities before the start of the shoe: Card Value: Player Win Banker Win Tie

read more Concepts 14: Baccarat 1st Card Advantage

Baccarat: Conditions for Positive Expectation on Side Wagers

In simulating different conditions of a Baccarat shoe, the following instances were observed: Wager refers to the wager type studied – Pairs, Wins on Natural 9s (WN9) and Wins on Natural 8s (WN8). Win % Probability indicates the percentage probability of that result occurring. Expectation, based on 11:1 for Pairs and 8:1 for Wins on Natural 8s and 9s, shows the expectation (player’s edge) of the respective wagers with the state of the shoe on the right. 1 – K indicates how many cards of that value have been dealt. Wager Win % Probability Expectation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 J Q K Pairs 8.66% 3.9% 5 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 Pairs 25.02% 200.2% 5 5 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 WN9 14.27% 28.4% 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 5 5 5 5 5 WN8 13.21% 18.9% 25

read more Baccarat: Conditions for Positive Expectation on Side Wagers

Concepts 13: Baccarat Vs. Non-Commission Baccarat – Why does a Banker Win on 6 Pay Half?

Why does a Banker win on 6 pay half? If you have ever wondered about this, you are not alone. This table shows the Probability and House Edge for Baccarat (where Banker wins pay 0.95:1). Notice the House Edge on Banker (in bold):  Wager  Permutations  Probability  Break-Even House Edge  Player   2,230,518,282,592,260   0.4462466093                                             1.02768                                          0.012351  Banker   2,292,252,566,437,890   0.4585974226                                             0.97307                                          0.010579  Tie      475,627,426,473,216              0.09516                                             9.50906                                          0.143596  Total   4,998,398,275,503,360 The House Edge means, theoretically in the long-term, for every dollar wagered, a player is expected to lose 1.05 cents. This is a table with the House Edge on Baccarat, comparing what the House Edge would be if Banker were paid half on wins of 1 to 9: Banker Win On: Permutations Probability Banker Win on Any Other Result Player Win Difference House Edge 1         24,291,119,898,624 0.004859781                  2,267,961,446,539,260                  2,230,518,282,592,260 –   49,588,723,896,320.0 -0.009920923 2         44,681,581,871,104 0.00893918                  2,247,570,984,566,780

read more Concepts 13: Baccarat Vs. Non-Commission Baccarat – Why does a Banker Win on 6 Pay Half?

Roulette Analysis for Players

This analysis spreadsheet is meant for Single-Zero and Double-Zero Roulette. By entering in the results at a table, the spreadsheet will indicate the numbers and areas where results have occurred most often. Do understand that Roulette is a random game of chance – the results of previous games have no implication on the results of subsequent games. The spreadsheet will show if there is a bias in the wheel, a dealer with a regular spin or some flaw at the table which causes the game to be not as random as it should. Use this system at your own risk. Purchase the spreadsheet below – the spreadsheet will be sent to your e-mail address. Good luck.

Excelpunks Casino Maths Course

Ever wondered how casinos determine the payouts for games?  Ever wondered how casino games are created?  Are you working in a casino and are wondering how the casino decides when a player is winning too much? Learn all this and more at Excelpunks’ Casino Maths and Probability course! Gain a deeper understanding of 4 of the most popular casino games – Roulette, Sic-Bo, Poker and Baccarat! Combinations and Permutations – learn how games are created and how payouts are determined Probability – learn how probability affects the way games are developed and how win/loss thresholds are derived Payment – how probability translates into expectation and determining payments for wagers Standard deviation – determine the likelihood of a suspicious event Expected Value and Standard Deviation – learn how to calculate the expected win/loss of casino games and how to determine the thresholds of win/loss results Contact us at for details!

Roulette Analysis for Casinos

Requirements: •Windows 7 and above •.Net 4.5.2 compatibility •SQL compatibility Pricing: 500 USD Demo Video: You are a casino owner, gaming manager or surveillance manager.  You have a feeling that something is going down at the roulette tables, but you can’t put your finger on it.  Looking for a method to calculate the probabilities? Excelpunks puts the statistics into this equation with Roulette Analysis! •Includes analyses for Single and Double Zero roulette •Probability alerts immediately inform you of improbable results. •Round-By-Round Analysis and Entire Game Analysis: Occurrence of Specific numbers Win/Loss analysis on all wager types Win/Loss analysis on Specific Numbers Win/Loss analysis  of the game as a whole •Custom Analysis •Win/Loss analysis of any combination of any number of games Let robust statistical principles do the math for you.  Think that your player is winning more than he should?  Let Roulette Analysis prove it mathematically! Get in touch with us at for details!

What video games can teach companies

In the past months, I have had ample time to sample some of the many forms of video games. Most games feature some form of simulation of real life, from racing to squad combat. AND for some of us, we spend way too much time in these environments. The real reason, which we may not realise at first, is the sense of accomplishment it provides. That extra level up, that unique weapon or that opponent defeated; video games offer a sense of gratification for effort expended. So great is this feeling that we look forward to the end of our work days so we can get back to gaming. Video games have a lot to teach us in the corporate world, in terms of how we look at work, our ways of recognising and rewarding effort and even the structures of our corporate environment. Video games always contain inherent traits, much of which can be applied to the real world:

read more What video games can teach companies

Casino Gaming: Theoretical Win, Expected Value and Standard Deviation

Theoretical win and the standard deviations of expected value have been widely covered in numerous articles.  Unfortunately for me, the discussion on the topic has seldom been comprehensive enough to be understood by the layperson (meaning me). This post attempts to explain the issue in the simplest possible way. Why is this important? Theoretical win is derived from the probabilities built into any casino game.  As all casino games are designed (in theory) to guarantee a return to the casino, the theoretical win (winnings for the player) is always negative while the expected value, also known as expectation (winnings for the casino) is always positive. However, like with all probabilities, an element of randomness exists.  The standard deviation of theoretical win thus provides a threshold for casino managers to decide if play has passed the limit where it becomes suspect. Theoretical Win and Expected Value The average of results is determined by the theoretical win formula.  Hence, 50% of all

read more Casino Gaming: Theoretical Win, Expected Value and Standard Deviation