There is something to be said about card counting in Baccarat. The immense number of permutations often makes it difficult to card count in this game without some form of assistance. The fact that different card values have different effects on probability in this game and that these effects are not always consistent, is another puzzling aspect. The following table shows the expectations of several side wagers using various permutations of card values with between 5 to 25 cards being drawn for each. This is done to show that the advantage can be obtained from card counting and that one does not need to go very far into the shoe for it. Note that a positive expectation here indicates that the player would have the advantage in the following coup on that wager. Now, some of these situations seem very specific and they are. This data is not meant to show that card counting is viable, but that it is
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In trying to understand the boundaries of a game, it is helpful to look at all the possible permutations of events possible. We shall do this with baccarat – bull-dozing through the math. The total number of permutations for baccarat is 416!/410! = 4,998,398,275,503,360. This is because there are 416 cards in an 8-deck shoe, so 52 x 8 = 416. We divide this number in factorials, meaning 416!, by 416 – 6 (for each coup has 6-cards, in relation to calculations). So we get 416! / 410!. As a point of interest, some of you might be thinking – isn’t there some kind of formula where we can plug in numbers and get the probability of results? Well, as far as my research has gone, there isn’t. Also, the removal of a 2 has a different effect from the removal of a 5. Meaning that each card has a different effect on the probabilities of the Player, Banker and
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