Baccarat – An Analysis on Side Wagers

There is something to be said about card counting in Baccarat.

The immense number of permutations often makes it difficult to card count in this game without some form of assistance. The fact that different card values have different effects on probability in this game and that these effects are not always consistent, is another puzzling aspect.

The following table shows the expectations of several side wagers using various permutations of card values with between 5 to 25 cards being drawn for each. This is done to show that the advantage can be obtained from card counting and that one does not need to go very far into the shoe for it.

Note that a positive expectation here indicates that the player would have the advantage in the following coup on that wager.

Now, some of these situations seem very specific and they are. This data is not meant to show that card counting is viable, but that it is possible.

A positive expectation means that the player is expected to win over the long-term for that wager. A 0.3383 expectation means the player is expected to win $0.3383 per dollar wagered.

Card Value (5 or 25 cards drawn)
Side Wager 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 J Q K Probability Expectation Odds
Pair 25 25 25 25 25 5 25 25 25 5 5 25 25 0.1115 0.3383 11
25 25 25 25 25 5 25 25 25 5 5 5 25 0.1096 0.3152 11
25 25 25 25 25 5 25 25 25 5 25 25 25 0.1096 0.3149 11
25 25 5 5 5 25 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0.0847 0.0161 11
Player Win on N8 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 5 25 5 5 25 25 0.1345 0.2101 8
Player Win on N9 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 5 5 5 25 25 0.1478 0.3299 8
Dragon 7 25 25 25 5 5 5 5 25 25 25 25 25 25 0.0381 0.5620 40
Panda 8 25 25 5 25 5 25 5 5 25 25 25 25 25 0.0552 0.4347 25
Super 6 25 25 25 25 25 5 25 25 25 5 5 5 5 0.1117 0.7877 15
Lucky 6 25 25 25 25 25 5 25 25 25 5 5 5 5 0.0817 0.6929 12/20

 

 

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