Concepts 16: Baccarat – Effects of Card Removal

Hi friends, This topic follows the study on the most beneficial cards to the Player, Banker and Tie wagers in Baccarat. The 3 tables below show the effect on the probabilities of the Player, Banker and Tie as 1, 2 and 3 cards are removed in isolation from each card value. Do take note of … Continue reading Concepts 16: Baccarat – Effects of Card Removal

Concepts 15: Most Beneficial Cards for Each Wager

Friends, The following 3 tables show the most beneficial cards for each wager. This was calculated by observing the number of times the presence of cards of these values led to a Player, Banker or Tie result. They are sorted in descending order of effect by card value. Some of the results are intuitive, others … Continue reading Concepts 15: Most Beneficial Cards for Each Wager

Concepts 14: Baccarat 1st Card Advantage

All right folks. First off, please understand that having a 1st-card advantage means that the player has somehow found out what the first card of the as-yet undealed coup is. This is at worst cheating or at best, if the dealer or procedures are weak, advantage play. 1st-card advantage is essentially a study of all … Continue reading Concepts 14: Baccarat 1st Card Advantage

Baccarat: Conditions for Positive Expectation on Side Wagers

In simulating different conditions of a Baccarat shoe, the following instances were observed: Wager refers to the wager type studied - Pairs, Wins on Natural 9s (WN9) and Wins on Natural 8s (WN8). Win % Probability indicates the percentage probability of that result occurring. Expectation, based on 11:1 for Pairs and 8:1 for Wins on … Continue reading Baccarat: Conditions for Positive Expectation on Side Wagers

Concepts 13: Baccarat Vs. Non-Commission Baccarat – Why does a Banker Win on 6 Pay Half?

Why does a Banker win on 6 pay half? If you have ever wondered about this, you are not alone. This table shows the Probability and House Edge for Baccarat (where Banker wins pay 0.95:1). Notice the House Edge on Banker (in bold):  Wager  Permutations  Probability  Break-Even House Edge  Player   2,230,518,282,592,260   0.4462466093                                             … Continue reading Concepts 13: Baccarat Vs. Non-Commission Baccarat – Why does a Banker Win on 6 Pay Half?

What video games can teach companies

In the past months, I have had ample time to sample some of the many forms of video games. Most games feature some form of simulation of real life, from racing to squad combat. AND for some of us, we spend way too much time in these environments. The real reason, which we may not … Continue reading What video games can teach companies

Casino Gaming: Theoretical Win, Expected Value and Standard Deviation

Theoretical win and the standard deviations of expected value have been widely covered in numerous articles.  Unfortunately for me, the discussion on the topic has seldom been comprehensive enough to be understood by the layperson (meaning me). This post attempts to explain the issue in the simplest possible way. Why is this important? Theoretical win … Continue reading Casino Gaming: Theoretical Win, Expected Value and Standard Deviation

The Logic Of The Losing Shoe

The Logic of the Losing Shoe For those in the casino industry, especially for us surveillance folks, the words ‘losing shoe’ are all too familiar. A losing shoe is a period of play, normally lasting the length of one shoe of cards (which may be from one to as many decks as the shoe can … Continue reading The Logic Of The Losing Shoe

Predict Your Casino’s Future Earnings from Past Data – Linear Regression

Predict Your Casino’s Future Earnings from Past Data – Linear Regression Linear regression is a statistical tool for projecting future outcomes based on previous historical data.  A good example of this would be using the average wager to win/loss data from patrons to project how much a casino would be making for a particular period. … Continue reading Predict Your Casino’s Future Earnings from Past Data – Linear Regression

Concepts 9: Creating A Casino Game

Creating A Casino Game We've discussed the process for the creation of a casino game, namely: Calculating possibilities using combinatorial analysis Calculating the expectation Setting the odds Let’s use a simple example – something I saw in a Chinese drama. The game involves using 5 coins and tumbling them in an opaque container.  The container … Continue reading Concepts 9: Creating A Casino Game