In simulating different conditions of a Baccarat shoe, the following instances were observed:
- Wager refers to the wager type studied – Pairs, Wins on Natural 9s (WN9) and Wins on Natural 8s (WN8).
- Win % Probability indicates the percentage probability of that result occurring.
- Expectation, based on 11:1 for Pairs and 8:1 for Wins on Natural 8s and 9s, shows the expectation (player’s edge) of the respective wagers with the state of the shoe on the right.
- 1 – K indicates how many cards of that value have been dealt.
| Wager | Win % Probability | Expectation | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0 | J | Q | K |
| Pairs | 8.66% | 3.9% | 5 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Pairs | 25.02% | 200.2% | 5 | 5 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| WN9 | 14.27% | 28.4% | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| WN8 | 13.21% | 18.9% | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
While sufficient randomization would have occurred with the 26-card cut at the end of the shoe as well as with standard burn-card procedures; this table shows that while only under specific circumstances, it IS possible for the expectation of a side wager to turn against the House and towards the player.
These 4 examples are just some of many possible states.
In the first Pair example, we see a modest 3.9% expectation for the Player, meaning that the Player is expected to win 3.9 cents on the dollar. As a means of comparison, the 2nd Pair example shows an extreme expectation of 2.002 dollars for the player per dollar wagered.
Food for thought and perhaps further study.
Good luck.
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