Baccarat: An Analysis on Calculations

In trying to understand the boundaries of a game, it is helpful to look at all the possible permutations of events possible. We shall do this with baccarat – bull-dozing through the math.  The total number of permutations for baccarat is 416!/410! = 4,998,398,275,503,360. This is because there are 416 cards in an 8-deck shoe, so 52 x 8 = 416. We divide this number in factorials, meaning 416!, by 416 – 6 (for each coup has 6-cards, in relation to calculations). So we get 416! / 410!. As a point of interest, some of you might be thinking – isn’t there some kind of formula where we can plug in numbers and get the probability of results? Well, as far as my research has gone, there isn’t. Also, the removal of a 2 has a different effect from the removal of a 5. Meaning that each card has a different effect on the probabilities of the Player, Banker and

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Casino Agent System

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Baccarat – An Analysis

In this article, we shall go over the various components of baccarat: Effect of individual cards on probability Effect of different card combinations in a coup Effect of individual cards on probability The following 3 line-charts show the effect of removing each value of card on the probabilities on the next hand of the Banker, Player and Tie. You will notice that different card values have different effects on the probability of the next hand. Running a regression analysis on each line, the following respective 3 bar-charts indicate the quantifiable effects on probability. Banker These charts show that removing 4s and 2s have the largest positive effect on the probability of a Banker result, while removing 8s and 9s have the largest negative effect on the probability of a Banker result. Player These charts show that removing 6s and 7s have the largest positive effect on the probability of a Player result, while removing 8s and 4s have the largest

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Concepts 16: Baccarat – Effects of Card Removal

Hi friends, This topic follows the study on the most beneficial cards to the Player, Banker and Tie wagers in Baccarat. The 3 tables below show the effect on the probabilities of the Player, Banker and Tie as 1, 2 and 3 cards are removed in isolation from each card value. Do take note of the changes in probability as each card is removed and their relationship to the respective wager. Player Card Value: Permutations Player Win % Compared to Other Wagers Player Win % by Card Value Effect of 1 Card Removed Effect of 2 Cards Removed Effect of 3 Cards Removed 4    1,036,330,148,130,820 44.9220% 7.7436% –                   0.0000435175 –                     0.0000870460 –                     0.0001305855 0    1,035,362,791,243,780 44.8801% 7.7363% –                   0.0000373810 –                     0.0000749287 –                     0.0001126377 J    1,035,362,791,243,780 44.8801% 7.7363% –                   0.0000373810 –                     0.0000749287 –                     0.0001126377 Q    1,035,362,791,243,780 44.8801% 7.7363% –                   0.0000373810 –                     0.0000749287 –                     0.0001126377 K    1,035,362,791,243,780 44.8801% 7.7363% –                   0.0000373810 –                     0.0000749287 –                     0.0001126377 1   

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Concepts 15: Most Beneficial Cards for Each Wager

Friends, The following 3 tables show the most beneficial cards for each wager. This was calculated by observing the number of times the presence of cards of these values led to a Player, Banker or Tie result. They are sorted in descending order of effect by card value. Some of the results are intuitive, others may surprise. Column 3: Player Win % Compared to Other Wagers compares the effect the card value has on a wager as compared to the other wagers, in this instance, Banker and Tie. Column 4: Player Win % by Card Value compares that card value’s effect as compared to all other card values for that particular wager. Player Card Value: Permutations Player Win % Compared to Other Wagers Player Win % by Card Value 4    1,036,330,148,130,820 44.9220% 7.7436% 0    1,035,362,791,243,780 44.8801% 7.7363% J    1,035,362,791,243,780 44.8801% 7.7363% Q    1,035,362,791,243,780 44.8801% 7.7363% K    1,035,362,791,243,780 44.8801% 7.7363% 1    1,034,132,990,550,020 44.8268% 7.7272% 3    1,032,891,882,528,770

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Concepts 14: Baccarat 1st Card Advantage

All right folks. First off, please understand that having a 1st-card advantage means that the player has somehow found out what the first card of the as-yet undealed coup is. This is at worst cheating or at best, if the dealer or procedures are weak, advantage play. 1st-card advantage is essentially a study of all the possible card permutations that start with Ace through to King that result in a Player, Banker or Tie result from the remaining cards in the shoe. The 2 tables below show that knowing that the 1st card is a 1-5 or 10-K, would give a small advantage on the Banker wager. Knowledge of the 1st card being 6-9 would give an increasing advantage on the Player wager, with knowing a 1st card as being 9 giving a 21% advantage on the Player wager. Below is a table that shows the probabilities before the start of the shoe: Card Value: Player Win Banker Win Tie

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Baccarat: Conditions for Positive Expectation on Side Wagers

In simulating different conditions of a Baccarat shoe, the following instances were observed: Wager refers to the wager type studied – Pairs, Wins on Natural 9s (WN9) and Wins on Natural 8s (WN8). Win % Probability indicates the percentage probability of that result occurring. Expectation, based on 11:1 for Pairs and 8:1 for Wins on Natural 8s and 9s, shows the expectation (player’s edge) of the respective wagers with the state of the shoe on the right. 1 – K indicates how many cards of that value have been dealt. Wager Win % Probability Expectation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 J Q K Pairs 8.66% 3.9% 5 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 Pairs 25.02% 200.2% 5 5 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 WN9 14.27% 28.4% 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 5 5 5 5 5 WN8 13.21% 18.9% 25

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