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  • Excelpunks Casino Maths Course

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  • Excelpunks Casino Maths Course

    July 1, 2016
    Ever wondered how casinos determine the payouts for games?  Ever wondered how casino games are created?  Are you working in a casino and are wondering how the casino decides when a player is winning too much?
    Learn all this and more at Excelpunks’ Casino Maths and Probability course!

    Gain a deeper understanding of 4 of the most popular casino games – Roulette, Sic-Bo, Poker and Baccarat!

    1. Combinations and Permutations – learn how games are created and how payouts are determined
    2. Probability – learn how probability affects the way games are developed and how win/loss thresholds are derived
    3. Payment – how probability translates into expectation and determining payments for wagers
    4. Standard deviation – determine the likelihood of a suspicious event
    5. Expected Value and Standard Deviation – learn how to calculate the expected win/loss of casino games and how to determine the thresholds of win/loss results

    Contact us at excelpunks@gmail.com for details!

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  • Roulette Analysis for Casinos

    June 18, 2016
    Requirements:
    •Windows 7 and above
    •.Net 4.5.2 compatibility
    •SQL compatibility
    Pricing: 500 USD

    Roulette Analysis for Casinos

    $500.00

    Demo Video:
    https://youtu.be/HbI2H0-La4A
    You are a casino owner, gaming manager or surveillance manager.  You have a feeling that something is going down at the roulette tables, but you can’t put your finger on it.  Looking for a method to calculate the probabilities?
    Excelpunks puts the statistics into this equation with Roulette Analysis!
    •Includes analyses for Single and Double Zero roulette
    •Probability alerts immediately inform you of improbable results.
    •Round-By-Round Analysis and Entire Game Analysis:
    • Occurrence of Specific numbers
    • Win/Loss analysis on all wager types
    • Win/Loss analysis on Specific Numbers
    • Win/Loss analysis  of the game as a whole
    •Custom Analysis •Win/Loss analysis of any combination of any number of games
    Let robust statistical principles do the math for you.  Think that your player is winning more than he should?  Let Roulette Analysis prove it mathematically!
    Get in touch with us at excelpunks@gmail.com for details!

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  • What video games can teach companies

    March 31, 2016

    In the past months, I have had ample time to sample some of the many forms of video games.

    Most games feature some form of simulation of real life, from racing to squad combat. AND for some of us, we spend way too much time in these environments.

    The real reason, which we may not realise at first, is the sense of accomplishment it provides. That extra level up, that unique weapon or that opponent defeated; video games offer a sense of gratification for effort expended.

    So great is this feeling that we look forward to the end of our work days so we can get back to gaming.

    Video games have a lot to teach us in the corporate world, in terms of how we look at work, our ways of recognising and rewarding effort and even the structures of our corporate environment.

    Video games always contain inherent traits, much of which can be applied to the real world:

    1. Measurable and surmountable challenges

    All quest-type video games present players with tasks.  An example would be to collect a certain amount of items.  What if the game told players to collect items, but did not specify the quantity?  Sounds unlikely?  All too likely in the real world!

    Create an environment where objectives are clear, have tangible rewards and are measurable. Staff know when the goals you have set are attainable and they will strive for them.
    Remember that only things that get measured, get done.
    If one gives unclear, ambiguous or unattainable goals, everyone knows that you do not reward or promote on any other basis than your own opinion.  This is simply based on the fact that there is no way to tell if an objective has been completed.

    That, my friend, is a dictatorship or worse, idiocy.

    2. Tangible and effective rewards (be it a substantial improvement in gaming performance or even just aesthetics)

    When quests do get completed, gamers are rewarded with a new item or a power-up.  This can be extremely incentivizing as it not only marks achievement, but enables players to achieve higher goals.

    If you are thinking that the reward system in games are instantaneous and thus inapplicable, you’d be wrong.  Players are known to perform repetitive tasks or ‘grind’ for days to accomplish a goal.  All because they know that there is a point to it.

    Too often, that is not the case in many working environments.  Not because there is a shortage of repetitive tasks, but that there is a sore lack of purpose.

    Tangible

    Reward staff in a substantial way.  The key here is to maintain a sustainable reward system that keeps people going for the goal.

    Some industries have achieved this by creating a multi-layered hierarchy of senior, assistant, deputy and vice positions. While this does create a sense of achievement, it can hamper the operations of your organization because you have just created a tall reporting structure -which is not dynamic and is ill-suited to responding to change.

    An alternative would be to use lateral forms of rewards such as time-off, incentive trips or even nominal pay raises.

    Effective

    Reward staff in a way that motivates them to do better.  A good way is to provide special developmental programs or even higher level duties.  There is nothing that says ‘trust’ more than the opportunity to do important work.

    It is important that you don’t use this as a way to get subordinates to do YOUR work.  People can smell a lazy-ass boss who is passing off work that he doesn’t want to do.  Don’t be that guy.

    3. Fair treatment

    The controlled environment of a game world lets regular players know when someone is cheating.  Tell-tale signs like an impossible amount of level ups is a sure sign of cheating and for the most part, the gaming community and administrators lay the smack down pretty efficiently.

    Unfortunately, this does not apply to real life and it is common to see the unscrupulous gain the upper hand in a corporate environment.

    Fair treatment is important as it motivates your best guys to continue giving their best as they know there is a point to it all.

    If too many of the clowns get rewarded, the rest will know that the game is rigged and will stop trying or worse.  This creates a toxic environment of back-biting, politics and misery.  Don’t do that!

    4. In Closing…

    Promote and reward only the exemplars in your organization.  Remember that people are watching who you promote and will emulate their behavior.

    Paying attention to these factors can make the difference between a team of highly motivated professionals and a set of feet-draggers that would like nothing better than to see the organization fail.

    Isn’t it time we apply these principles to how we work?

     

     

     

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  • Casino Gaming: Theoretical Win, Expected Value and Standard Deviation

    March 19, 2016

    Theoretical win and the standard deviations of expected value have been widely covered in numerous articles.  Unfortunately for me, the discussion on the topic has seldom been comprehensive enough to be understood by the layperson (meaning me).

    This post attempts to explain the issue in the simplest possible way.

    Why is this important?

    Theoretical win is derived from the probabilities built into any casino game.  As all casino games are designed (in theory) to guarantee a return to the casino, the theoretical win (winnings for the player) is always negative while the expected value, also known as expectation (winnings for the casino) is always positive.

    However, like with all probabilities, an element of randomness exists.  The standard deviation of theoretical win thus provides a threshold for casino managers to decide if play has passed the limit where it becomes suspect.

    Theoretical Win and Expected Value

    The average of results is determined by the theoretical win formula.  Hence, 50% of all results will achieve this result.

    For example:

    A split wager on single-zero roulette pays 17:1.

    The probability of winning a split bet is 2/37 (2 numbers wagered on from a total of 37 numbers)

    The probability of losing the bet is 37-2 / 37 = 35/37 (for all the other numbers not wagered on)

    The theoretical win formula is:

    (Probability of winning x payout in terms of units of wager) – (Probability of losing x wager)

    (2/37 x 17) – (35/37 x 1) = -0.02703

    This means that 50% of all play on split wagers in single-zero roulette will (in the long-term) achieve a loss of $0.02703 per dollar wagered by the player.

    Standard Deviation

    The majority of results will fall within 3 standard deviations from the average.

    bellcurve

    (Source: http://schools-wikipedia.org/)

    In order to obtain the standard deviation, we turn to the binomial distribution, which is a distribution where only 1 of 2 outcomes is possible.  In our case, the outcomes being a win or a loss.

    Games with only 2 Outcomes

    The formula for a binomial standard deviation is:

    Square Root (number of games x probability of winning x probability of losing) x average wager x (unit of wager + payout in terms of units of wager)

    Using our current split wager example, with an average wager of $2 over 3 games, the formula would be as follows:

    Square Root(3 x 2/37 x 35/37) x $2 x (1+17)

    =Square Root(3 x 2/37 x 35/37) x $2 x 18

    = 0.391659 x $2 x 18

    = $14.09972 (standard deviation of theoretical win)

    Games with 3 or more Outcomes

    How about games with more than 2 possible outcomes, perhaps a win, loss or tie? Baccarat fits this description and for this we turn to the multinomial distribution:

    This table describes the possible outcomes for a Player wager. A win on Player would give +1 and a loss on Player would give -1. A tie pays 0.

    For a Banker wager, a win would pay 0.95, a loss -1 and a tie, again 0.

    Player Wager

    Wager Probability Outcome
    Player 0.446246609 1
    Banker 0.458597423 -1
    Tie 0.095155968 0

    The expectation of the Player wager is just the product of the probability of each result by the outcome, the sum of which is -0.012350813:

    Wager Probability Outcome Expectation
    Player 0.446246609 1 0.446246609
    Banker 0.458597423 -1 -0.458597423
    Tie 0.095155968 0 0
    Total Probability = 1 Total Exp. -0.012350813

    The standard deviation of expectation for this is worked out below.

    First, you get the variance for each wager:

    Wager Probability Outcome Expectation Variance
    Player 0.44625 1 0.44625 0.44625 x (1- -0.01235)^2 = 0.45734
    Banker 0.45860 -1 -0.45860 0.45860 x (-1- -0.01235)^2 = 0.44734
    Tie 0.09516 0 0.00000 0.09516 x (0- -0.01235)^2 = 0.00001

    Notice that the working is really:

    Probability x (Outcome – Expectation)^2 = Variance

    The standard deviation for this is then:

    SQRT(Sum of all Variances) = Standard Deviation of Expectation

    SD. Of Exp.  SQRT( 0.45734+ 0.44734+ 0.00001 ) = 0.95115

    This means that the standard deviation of expectation of a $1 Player wager for 1 coup is $0.95115. For a $5 wager over 10 coups, it would be $0.95115 x $5 x SQRT(10).

    The Result

    To find out if the win of a player is improbable, we use the Z-table and the following formula:

    Win – Average Win (Theoretical Win)

    Standard Deviation

    Our example will yield the following result should the player have won $15.  The player played 3 games with an average wager of $2, so the total wager would be $6.

    15 – (-0.02703 x $6)

    14.09972

    =1.075352

    The result is 1.075352, meaning that the result of the player’s gaming is 1.075352 standard deviations from the average.  This means that the player’s gaming results are within the top 15% of all results.  Cause for some concern.

    There you have it.  Good luck!

    www.onlinecasino.us

     

     

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  • 3 Things I Learnt From Programming

    March 16, 2016
    Programming is essentially an exercise in concentration.
    After several months learning this from the ground-up, I have come to 3 conclusions.
    1. The best solutions to problems are always simple and elegant.
    2. Attack problems with a clear mind. You can solve a problem in 5 minutes well rested, while 10 hours with a tired mind will yield nothing.
    3. Take a step back when you come to a road block. The solution you need requires you to take a different angle.

    And that’s it.

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  • Casino Surveillance Reporting Suite with Integrated Baccarat Analysis

    January 11, 2016

    Requirements:

    • Windows 7 and above
    • .NET Framework
    • SQL server compatibility

    Contact us at excelpunks@gmail.com for details!

    Demonstration Video:

    Features:

    1. User-friendly interface with drag and drop functionality
    2. Comprehensive details presented in an easily navigable format.
    3. Compatibility with Excel – retrieve and upload large amounts of information using Excel into and out of the system.
    4. Customizable user access levels define how much access each user has to report and access data.
    5. Integrated Incident Reporting platform with Baccarat Analysis for comprehensive reporting on losing shoes.
    6. Automatic report data generates upon loading – presenting the number of reports created by respective users and categories.
    7. Print reports individually or by batch
    Password Protected Log-ins
    • Password protection for all log-ins.
    • Reports are uniquely identified by the user’s log-in name.
    Login

    Incident Reporting

    • Standardized reporting made easy with drop-down lists for incident categories, locations, staff and subject profiles.
    • Dynamic report list generation allows you to scroll through all selected reports
    Incident Report

    Subject and Staff Profiles

    • Dynamic profile list generation allows you to scroll through all selected profiles
    • Attach any kind of file to the profile from images to movies and access them directly from the subject profile.
    • Easy access to all related Incident Reports and Daily Logs.

    Subject Profile

    Baccarat Analysis – Game Analysis

    • Examine a host of factors like wager ratios, game wins and shoe biases -all integrated with your Incident Report.

    Baccarat Tracking Sheet

    Baccarat Analysis – Player Analysis

    • Analyze all the games ever reviewed for specific players
    • Find out the level of probability for suspicious behavior for all reviewed games.

    Player Analysis

    Custom Report Generation

    • Custom report generation allows for dynamic, customized report lists for display.

    Custom Data

    Service

    • Customization is available on request – we understand how unique your operations are and we will tailor the system to suit your specific needs.

    Should you be in another industry, but would like a customized reporting system of your own, do let us know!

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  • Checking in…

    January 6, 2016

    Hi everyone,

    I apologize for not posting much over the past few months as I have been acquiring new skills.

    I am now proud to announce that Excelpunks will be expanding its scope to include the creation of stand-alone .exe programs.

    Minimum system requirements are a computer that runs on Windows Vista or higher.

    If there is some routine data processing that you need done on a regular basis or if you are looking at acquiring a new reporting or database handling system – we’ve got you covered.

    Regards,

    Josh.

     

     

     

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  • Integrated Invoicing, Inventory and Accounting System

    October 26, 2015

    Download:https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B1GOdFh_T_QgOXpPVk1CZGdWaTA&usp=sharing

    Looking into automating your existing pen and paper invoicing and inventory system?  Interested in integrating inventory tracking, accounting and invoicing into a single system?

    Excelpunks is pleased to present its integrated invoice, inventory and accounting system!

    INVOICING

    Invoice Main1

    • Create new invoices easily
    • Create customer profiles easily so you can track who’s your best client – fill in as much or as little information as you need
    • Easy to navigate invoicing system lets you modify and view all existing invoices.
    • Print your invoices easily

    ACCOUNTING

    Summary

    • Account for all your revenue and expenses with a single invoicing system
    • Summary reports let you know your staff, client and sales performance by time-period

    INVENTORY

    Inventory

    • Track your incoming and outgoing inventory
    • Invoices automatically update your inventory stock

    FEATURES

    • Stand-alone system is a breeze to install
    • Customization available on request
    • Excel connectivity allows you to import all your existing data, making system transition easy

    Get in touch with us for details at excelpunks@gmail.com

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  • Baccarat Analysis for Casinos

    September 29, 2015

    Requirements:

    • .NET framework
    • SQL server compatibility

    Baccarat Analysis for Casinos

    $500.00

    Baccarat.  It is THE hottest game in Asia and well known for its high limits and the crowd it draws.

    Excelpunks is pleased to present – Baccarat Analysis.

    View the demo:

    Individual Game Analysis

    Baccarat Analysis (Review)

    • Analyse each game being played
    • Easy to use point and click interface
    • Systems automatically examine the results of each coup – all you have to do is enter the results and the wagers
    • WIN: Compute your player’s probability of winning for the player, banker, tie or pairs
    • WAGER: Monitor your player’s wagering pattern to see if he is wagering high on the winning hands and low on the losing hands – there’s no need to guess, let us prove the maths!
    • SHOE: Analyse the shoe itself to see if there was a bias to either the player or the banker and assess its probability
    • THEORETICAL WIN: Compare the expected theoretical win and the result and see how probable the result is
    • 1st Card: Determine the probability of 1st card knowledge

    Master Your Games

    • Using binomial distributions and T-tests, study each game on 5 metrics: Win rate, Wager Ratios, Shoe Bias, Theoretical Win and 1st Card knowledge
    • 6 threat levels assess the improbability of a result occurring from confidence levels of between 75% to 99.9%
    • Multiple measurement systems analyse various aspects of play to see just what your player is doing

    LONG-TERM Player Analysis – Analyse Your Players Based on All Games EVER Reviewed…that’s right, every one

    Baccarat Analysis (Player Analysis)

    • A centralised database captures EACH and EVERY coup ever reviewed for quick and easy analysis
    • Review EVERY GAME ever played by your player and spot trends across all shoes played with the Player Analysis module.
    • Easily recall a previously reviewed game with a mouse-click
    • Automatic algorithms do all the math for you – you just need to type in a name and click!

    Easy transfer of your existing data!

    Baccarat Analysis (Database)

    • Integration with Excel allows you to transfer your existing data into the system
    • Customization is available on request

    Get in touch with us at excelpunks@gmail.com for details!

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  • APPRAISE 2.0 – The 5 Minute Staff Appraisal System!

    September 6, 2015

    Download: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B1GOdFh_T_QgU2hPbTdsWFFTRFU&usp=sharing

    Are your regular staff appraisals a pain in the ASS?  Wished you could be spending more time DEVELOPING your staff instead of TYPING about it?  Need an easy way to generate all those forms in 5 MINUTES FLAT?

    Excelpunks’ APPRAISE Staff Appraisal System does just that!  Get all the paperwork done in a flash and spend more time LISTENING and COMMUNICATING with your team!

    Simple Interface

    Appraise - Main Control

    • Simple plug and play interface allows you to start using the system in a flash!
    • Automatic dropdown options take care of all the essentials!  Why type EVERYTHING out when you need just a mouse click?
    • No learning curve! (almost!)

    Easy data migration

    Appraise - Staff List

    • Supports imports from Excel so you can load large amounts of data without manual typing!

    Built-In Ready-Made Appraisal Forms

    Appraise - Appraisal Form

    • Automatic listings make sure EVERYTHING is spelt correctly and all the details match PERFECTLY!
    • Just select a name and enter a numerical rating – the system does the rest!
    • Interface supports printing so you can get those form signed!
    • Generate a formatted, READY FOR PRINTING staff appraisal report by simply selecting a name!

    Customizable!

    • Customize your OWN rating system!
    • Additional customization available upon request!

    Get in touch with us at excelpunks@gmail.com for details!

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