# Concepts 14: Baccarat 1st Card Advantage

All right folks.

First off, please understand that having a 1st-card advantage means that the player has somehow found out what the first card of the as-yet undealed coup is.

This is at worst cheating or at best, if the dealer or procedures are weak, advantage play.

1st-card advantage is essentially a study of all the possible card permutations that start with Ace through to King that result in a Player, Banker or Tie result from the remaining cards in the shoe.

The 2 tables below show that knowing that the 1st card is a 1-5 or 10-K, would give a small advantage on the Banker wager. Knowledge of the 1st card being 6-9 would give an increasing advantage on the Player wager, with knowing a 1st card as being 9 giving a 21% advantage on the Player wager.

Below is a table that shows the probabilities before the start of the shoe:

 Card Value: Player Win Banker Win Tie Player Win % Banker Win % Tie % Player Exp Banker Exp Tie Exp 1 159,747,170,699,264 189,857,873,692,672 34,887,130,646,784 41.5476% 49.3789% 9.0736% -0.0783 0.0536 -0.1834 2 160,408,944,947,200 188,725,567,889,408 35,357,662,202,112 41.7197% 49.0844% 9.1959% -0.0736 0.0491 -0.1724 3 161,429,794,906,112 187,253,976,461,312 35,808,403,671,296 41.9852% 48.7016% 9.3132% -0.0672 0.0428 -0.1618 4 162,751,823,355,904 184,376,516,966,400 37,363,834,716,416 42.3290% 47.9533% 9.7177% -0.0562 0.0323 -0.1254 5 166,618,505,969,664 179,969,323,315,200 37,904,345,753,856 43.3347% 46.8070% 9.8583% -0.0347 0.0113 -0.1128 6 173,075,882,563,584 170,168,183,390,208 41,248,109,084,928 45.0141% 44.2579% 10.7279% 0.0076 -0.0297 -0.0345 7 185,770,147,510,272 157,451,915,216,896 41,270,112,311,552 48.3157% 40.9506% 10.7337% 0.0737 -0.0941 -0.0340 8 206,999,120,039,936 140,506,916,139,008 36,986,138,859,776 53.8370% 36.5435% 9.6195% 0.1729 -0.1912 -0.1342 9 215,108,869,548,032 132,334,879,180,800 37,048,426,309,888 55.9462% 34.4181% 9.6357% 0.2153 -0.2325 -0.1328 0 638,608,023,052,288 761,607,414,185,984 137,753,262,916,608 41.5228% 49.5203% 8.9568% -0.0800 0.0552 -0.1939

This table shows the same 16 cards in for each card value, so technically, halfway through the shoe:

 Card Value: Player Win Banker Win Tie Player Win % Banker Win % Tie % Player Exp Banker Exp Tie Exp 1 2,404,712,210,944 2,862,066,979,328 525,341,662,848 41.5170% 49.4131% 9.0699% -0.0790 0.0543 -0.1837 2 2,414,405,553,152 2,845,665,957,888 532,049,342,080 41.6843% 49.1299% 9.1857% -0.0745 0.0499 -0.1733 3 2,427,320,125,440 2,826,650,029,056 538,150,698,624 41.9073% 48.8016% 9.2911% -0.0689 0.0445 -0.1638 4 2,441,864,919,040 2,787,715,898,880 562,540,035,200 42.1584% 48.1294% 9.7122% -0.0597 0.0356 -0.1259 5 2,510,828,003,328 2,709,937,753,088 571,355,096,704 43.3490% 46.7866% 9.8644% -0.0344 0.0110 -0.1122 6 2,609,779,693,056 2,562,217,828,352 620,123,331,712 45.0574% 44.2363% 10.7063% 0.0082 -0.0303 -0.0364 7 2,801,721,069,056 2,369,605,165,568 620,794,618,496 48.3712% 40.9108% 10.7179% 0.0746 -0.0951 -0.0354 8 3,123,172,254,720 2,113,348,414,464 555,600,183,936 53.9210% 36.4866% 9.5923% 0.1743 -0.1926 -0.1367 9 3,240,895,371,776 1,993,736,233,472 557,489,247,872 55.9535% 34.4215% 9.6250% 0.2153 -0.2325 -0.1338 0 9,633,645,025,280 11,472,680,607,744 2,062,157,779,456 41.5808% 49.5185% 8.9007% -0.0794 0.0546 -0.1989